Britain and Poland are set to sign a big new security treaty

The balance of power between the countries is changing

Photograph: Reuters

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F or sir keir starmer, foreign policy has been something of a solace. At home, the prime minister’s authority is in shreds and he is struggling to stay in office. Abroad, however, he can claim credit for strengthening relations with Britain’s neighbours as Europe faces up to life with a bolshy America. First, in the north, came a new “strategic partnership” with Norway. Last year Sir Keir bolstered ties with France, agreeing to “co-ordinate” the use of the countries’ nuclear weapons. Then he signed a treaty with Germany, which increased co-operation on defence, trade and migration. Now Sir Keir’s diplomacy moves farther east. On May 27th he is expected to sign a new defence and security treaty with Poland’s prime minister, Donald Tusk (pictured).

The countries already signed smaller agreements in 2017 and 2023, to boost collaboration in fields such as military training and cyber-security. They share a similar outlook on sanctions against Russia and on support for Ukraine. According to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, a German think-tank, cumulative bilateral-aid allocations to Ukraine from Britain and Poland in the four years since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022 are equivalent to roughly 0.8% and 1.0% of their gdp in 2021, respectively. Britain and Poland are bound together by migration, too: the 2021 census showed that 734,000 Poles were living in England and Wales, the second-largest foreign-born population, after Indians.

Talks over the new treaty have been going on since January 2025. It will expand on the earlier agreements by focusing not just on defence but also on economic resilience, energy security, illegal migration and crime. The pact is expected to reaffirm the countries’ commitment to mutual defence, echoing the sentiment of Britain’s recent treaties with France and Germany. It is also expected to foster greater co-operation between the two countries’ defence industries, which the British government says has already been worth around £8bn ($10.9bn) to Britain over the past three years.

Chart: The Economist

The broader economic ambition of the treaty is less clear, not least because trade is governed by Britain’s deals with the European Union. Poland is swiftly getting richer. The imf forecasts that, when adjusted for purchasing-power parity, Poland’s gdp per person will be not far below Britain’s by 2030 (see chart). By the same measure Poland will also be nearly at parity with Italy, and has already overtaken Spain.

Still, Polish officials stress that their country shares some economic challenges with Britain, such as a need for greater private capital investment. They also point to the green-energy transition as an area where Poland appreciates British leadership. While British investment in Poland remains bigger than the other way around, both governments talk up examples of Polish companies successfully expanding in Blighty. They include InPost, a Polish parcel-locker company that expects to have invested a total of £1.2bn in Britain by 2029, according to the boss of the firm’s international business, Michael Rouse.

Some points of tension remain. One Polish diplomat bristles at the mention of the e 3, an informal grouping of Britain, France and Germany that Sir Keir has found a helpful forum for presenting united European leadership. Poles argue that it is “only natural” for Poland to be involved at a “high level” of any post-war settlement that emerges between Europe, Russia and Ukraine, given the country’s size (38m people) and geography.

And Poland is showing more urgency than its ally on defence. Sir Keir’s government has said it will raise defence spending to 2.6% of gdp by 2027 and reach a nato target of 3.5% by 2035. In contrast, nato estimates that Poland’s spending was already 4.3% of gdp last year, the highest in the alliance. Poland’s finance and economy minister, Andrzej Domanski, explains that “We just cannot afford to lose time.” Britain’s nuclear deterrent and diplomacy still make it a European leader on security. But the message to Sir Keir, or his successor, is clear. As Poland grows stronger, it will expect a seat at the top table. ■

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논증 분석

유형: causal

핵심 주장

Britain과 Poland의 새로운 방위·안보 조약 체결은 양국 관계의 심화를 반영하지만, Poland의 급격한 경제 성장과 높은 국방비 지출로 인해 두 나라 사이의 권력 균형이 변화하고 있다.

논리구조

1. 전제: Keir Starmer는 국내 정치적 위기 속에서 외교를 돌파구로 삼아 Norway, France, Germany에 이어 Poland와도 방위·안보 조약을 2026년 5월 27일 서명할 예정이다.
2. 논거: 양국은 이미 2017년과 2023년에 군사 훈련·사이버 안보 분야의 협력 협정을 체결했으며, 대러 제재·Ukraine 지원에서 유사한 입장을 공유하고, Kiel Institute for the World Economy에 따르면 각각 GDP 대비 약 0.8%와 1.0%의 대우크라이나 원조를 지출했다.
3. 논거: 새 조약은 방위에서 더 나아가 경제 회복력, 에너지 안보, 불법 이민, 범죄 협력까지 포괄하며, 상호방위 공약 재확인 및 양국 방산 협력(최근 3년간 약 80억 파운드 규모)을 명시할 예정이다.
4. 진단: 조약의 경제적 야망은 불분명한데, 무역이 EU 협정에 의해 규율되기 때문이며, IMF는 구매력 평가 기준으로 Poland의 1인당 GDP가 2030년에는 Britain에 근접할 것으로 전망하는 등 Poland가 빠르게 부유해지고 있다.
5. 반론: Poland 외교관들은 Keir Starmer가 활용하는 E3(영·프·독 비공식 그룹) 포맷에 반발하며, 3,800만 인구와 지정학적 위치를 근거로 전후 유럽-러시아-우크라이나 평화 협상에서 Poland가 최고 수준으로 참여해야 한다고 주장한다.
6. 진단: 국방비 지출에서도 권력 균형 변화가 뚜렷하다. Britain은 2027년까지 GDP의 2.6%, 2035년까지 3.5% 목표를 제시한 반면, NATO 추산 Poland의 작년 국방비는 GDP의 4.3%로 동맹 최고 수준이며, 재무장관 Andrzej Domanski는 ‘시간을 낭비할 여유가 없다’고 강조했다.

결론

Britain의 핵 억지력과 외교력이 여전히 유럽 안보에서 지도적 역할을 하지만, 경제적으로나 군사적으로 급성장하는 Poland는 향후 유럽 안보 질서의 최고위 테이블에서 동등한 발언권을 요구할 것이다.

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