핵심 요약
독일 중도 정당은 개혁의 실행력, 조건부 협력 전략, 지도력 재검토를 통해 AfD의 부상에 대응해야 한다는 사설이다.
논증 분석
유형: prescription
논리구조
- 진단: Alternative for Germany의 Saxony-Anhalt 득표율 44%와 전국 여론조사 우위는 지역적 불만을 넘어선 중도 정치의 위기를 시사한다고 본다.
- 논거: 연정 배제만 지속되는 동안에도 당이 성장·급진화했고, 이전 선거 불참자 동원이 성공했다는 점에서 현 전략의 한계를 지적한다.
- 처방: Friedrich Merz와 Social Democratic Party of Germany의 연정은 합의된 조세·연금 개혁을 후퇴시키지 말고 경제 회복과 정책 실행력을 보여야 한다.
- 조건부 처방: Christian Democrats는 현 상태의 극단주의 정당을 집권시켜서는 안 되지만, 급진적 정책과 인물을 버리는 경우의 미래 협력 가능성은 열어 내부 온건화를 유도할 수 있다는 제안이다.
- 유보: 강해진 Alternative for Germany가 이러한 유인에 반응할지는 불확실하다. Giorgia Meloni의 Brothers of Italy는 선호하는 비교 사례이지 결과를 보장하는 증거가 아니다.
- 처방: 지지율 13%인 Friedrich Merz가 중도 정치의 설득력 있는 비전을 제시하지 못하면 지도부 교체도 검토해야 한다.
결론
개혁 후퇴나 무조건적 연정보다 실행력과 명시적 조건에 기반한 대응을 권한다. 조건부 협력이 실제 온건화를 유도할지는 검증이 필요한 정치적 가설이다.
원문
A stunning success for the AfD in Saxony-Anhalt
Photograph: Getty Images
For Germany, it is a red alert. On September 6th the Alternative for Germany (A f D) won 44% of the vote in Saxony-Anhalt. A party that employs unrepentant former neo-Nazis and has been labelled “extremist” by the intelligence service is on the cusp of becoming the first populist-right group to run one of Germany’s 16 states since 1945.
To take office the A f D still needs allies or defections. That should not blind Germany to the risk. The party was always going to do well in Saxony-Anhalt, which is depopulated, deprived and in the east, where party loyalties are weak. But in national polls the A f D now also has a lead, of eight points, over the centre-right CDU/CSU, led by Friedrich Merz, the chancellor. A federal election today might require a coalition of every centrist party to keep it from power.
Germany’s centrists have long thought that a firewall excluding the A f D from coalitions could keep it at bay. But behind this Brandmauer the party has grown and radicalised, pursuing racist fantasies of “remigration”, rapprochement with Russia and exit from the European Union and euro. Its manifesto for Saxony-Anhalt, which called for a radical reshaping of the state’s education, culture, media and civil service, proved alarmingly popular.
The A f D ’s success in Saxony-Anhalt rested in large part on mobilising people who did not vote in the previous election. Many of them have been repelled by mainstream politics. If the mainstream is to win them back, it must change.
What should it do? First, it must not let the A f D stun it into inaction. Before the summer Mr Merz’s dysfunctional coalition with the Social Democrats (SPD) approved an ambitious set of reforms covering everything from income tax to pensions. But the SPD, which increasingly appears to find governing a burden rather than a blessing, is now considering reversing sensible policies such as ending early retirement. Such was the delicacy of the compromise that unravelling one proposal could imperil others.
True, many of the reforms are unpopular and A f D voters in particular dislike change, but giving up now would be irresponsible. That is not only because Germany’s creaking economy and welfare state require urgent upgrade. For the coalition to relapse into do-nothing bickering would also bolster the A f D ’s claim that the old parties are tired and useless. The economy is at last showing signs of recovery. The government should lean into it.
Second, the CDU should reconsider the rigid Brandmauer. That does not mean kneeling before extremists; the A f D ’s stated goal is to destroy the CDU, not to work with it. And the CDU should not enable the entry to government of a party that opposes so much of what it stands for. But if the CDU signalled that it would not dogmatically exclude future co-operation with a party that shed its most radical ideas and politicians, it could eventually help boost the relative moderates within the A f D, some of whom are uneasy about their extreme comrades. The A f D ’s strength and confidence makes this harder, but an A f D that looks more like Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy would be preferable to the one that sits on the outer fringe of Europe’s right-wing populists.
Last, the time may come to look at the top. Mr Merz has got some things right, notably support for Ukraine and restoring Germany’s armed forces. His reformist instincts are laudable. But he is a clumsy politician, a bad manager and a terrible communicator. His approval rating stands at just 13%, and he shows no sign of understanding why. Two more state elections on September 20th may bring fresh disaster for the CDU. Germany’s system makes replacing leaders difficult but the CDU has alternatives. If Mr Merz proves unable to articulate a compelling vision for his brand of centrist politics, he should go. ■
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