Claims that it has hit a ceiling are probably wishful thinking
Illustration: Javier Palma
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R EFORM UK, the right-wing populist party led by Nigel Farage, won just five of the 650 seats in Britain’s parliament in last year’s elections. Yet it has since become the country’s best-polling party, with almost 30% support (see chart). If an election were held tomorrow, it would have a roughly 75% chance of winning the most seats. In a matter of months, in other words, it has raced from the periphery of politics to its very core.
Some, especially in Britain’s embattled mainstream parties, cling to the hope that Reform’s support has reached a ceiling over the past six months. It is, after all, plagued by scandals. Nathan Gill, a former Reform bigwig, was jailed for over ten years last month for taking bribes to make pro-Russian speeches. Mr Farage has appeared shifty and evasive over claims that he subjected classmates at school to racist taunts. Yet new research suggests that Reform still has lots of scope to grow.
Chart: The Economist
Jane Green of the Nuffield Politics Research Centre at the University of Oxford and Marta Miori of the University of Manchester have looked at data from the British Election Study, which interviews the same people over time to track how political attitudes change. Most of Reform’s gains have come from voters who previously supported the Conservative Party, Britain’s main right-wing party for over a century. Almost 40% of the remaining Conservative voters say they may also switch to Reform. In addition, there is a pool of former Conservative voters who claim to be undecided but appear open to Reform.
The proportion who will actually switch is unknowable, but the researchers note that defectors to Reform tended to underestimate how likely they were to switch before they did so. Only 69% of those who broke ranks in the year after the election had indicated that they might do so. Some eventual defectors had claimed they were very unlikely to switch.
This is not a forecast, stresses Professor Green, but a best-case scenario for Reform. Potential defectors may sour on Mr Farage if the scandals grow. Above all, a further mass migration of Conservative voters hinges on the perception that Reform is more capable of ousting the current Labour government. The cues that voters take from Reform’s performance in elections in May for the Welsh and Scottish parliaments and for local councils in much of England will be vital. Success may beget electoral success. “We could see Nigel Farage saying, ‘You’re wasting your vote with the Conservatives, if you want to keep out Labour,’” says Professor Green.
That would constitute a revolution in British politics. Labour won the election last year in a landslide because the right was divided. If Reform were to reunite it, it could sweep to power while sidelining the Conservatives, hitherto one of the world’s most successful political parties.
How different would that world be in practical terms? In some respects, radically. Mr Farage’s electioneering already owes much to the fireworks and thundering music of Donald Trump’s stadium rallies. He would also govern in a more presidential style, appointing a cabinet of business executives, generals and doctors since Reform has so few tested MP s to call on.
Some policy reversals would be jarring. Reform wants to deport an average of 120,000 people a year that it says have no right to be in Britain, a plan it dubs “Operation Restoring Justice”. It would also like to deregulate cryptocurrencies and create a “sovereign Bitcoin reserve”. Zia Yusuf, its head of policy and Mr Farage’s right-hand man, insists the party would remain “strong supporters” of Ukraine, but other figures speak disdainfully of mainstream politicians suffering from “Ukraine brain”.
Yet Reform still has much in common with the Conservatives. Its ranks are slowly filling with defectors from them. There is Malcolm Offord, a former minister; Danny Kruger, once a speechwriter for David Cameron, a former prime minister; and a raft of jobless former MP s. Reform’s biggest recruit is Christopher Harborne, a businessman and former Conservative donor, who has given the party £9m ($12m)—a fortune by the shoestring standards of British politics.
Reform’s ideology reflects the synthesis on the right in Britain, as the old ideas of the Conservative Party fuse with Mr Farage’s nationalist populism. In a bid to stem the loss of voters, the Conservatives have adopted Mr Farage’s main ideas, including hostility to immigration, the European Union and the European Convention on Human Rights, disdain for the civil service and suspicion of greenery. The Conservatives have also embraced populist gimmicks: when last in government, the party toyed with installing wave machines in the English Channel to repel migrant boats.
Reform, meanwhile, is looking more like the Tories as it seeks power. Mr Farage’s past promises of lavish tax cuts have been dropped for a pledge of fiscal responsibility. The party’s staff are more professional. In Mr Yusuf’s telling, what has failed is not conservative causes such as support for the family, free enterprise and national defence, but the institution of the Conservative Party in living up to them. “Those ideas live on through us,” he declares. The resulting agenda—fiscally conservative, tech-friendly, hawkish on migration and shrill on culture—describes the most recent Conservative government. To see where Reform would begin, look at where the Tories ended. ■
논증 분석
유형: predictive
핵심 주장
Reform UK이 현재 여론조사 1위임에도 불구하고 성장의 천장에 도달했다는 주장은 희망적 사고에 불과하며, 추가 상승 여력이 충분히 존재한다.
논리구조
- 전제: Reform UK은 지난 선거에서 650석 중 5석만 획득했지만, 현재 약 30% 지지율로 영국 최고 지지 정당이 되었으며 내일 선거가 열린다면 75% 확률로 최다 의석을 차지할 것으로 예측된다.
- 반론: 주류 정당들은 Reform UK이 지난 6개월간 지지율 천장에 도달했다고 희망적으로 해석하며, Nathan Gill 수감 및 Nigel Farage의 인종차별 발언 의혹 등 스캔들을 그 근거로 든다.
- 논거: Nuffield Politics Research Centre의 Jane Green과 University of Manchester의 Marta Miori의 연구에 따르면, Reform UK 지지 확대의 주요 원천인 잔류 보수당(Conservative Party) 지지자의 거의 40%가 Reform UK으로 이탈할 수 있다고 응답했다.
- 논거: British Election Study 데이터는 실제 이탈자들이 사전에 이탈 가능성을 과소평가하는 경향이 있음을 보여주며, 선거 후 1년 내 이탈자 중 69%만이 사전에 이탈 가능성을 언급했었다.
- 진단: Reform UK의 추가 성장은 스캔들 확산 여부와 함께, 5월 Welsh Parliament·Scottish Parliament 및 잉글랜드 지방선거 결과를 통해 Reform UK이 Labour 정부를 실질적으로 몰아낼 수 있다는 인식을 유권자에게 심어주느냐에 달려 있다.
- 진단: Conservative Party와 Reform UK은 이념적으로 수렴하고 있다: Conservative Party는 Reform UK의 반이민·반EU·반유럽인권협약(ECHR) 기조를 수용했고, Reform UK은 재정 책임 강조 및 조직 전문화 등 보수당의 특성을 흡수하고 있다.
- 논거: 전직 장관 Malcolm Offord, David Cameron 전 총리 연설문 작성자 Danny Kruger, 거액 기부자 Christopher Harborne(900만 파운드 기부) 등 Conservative Party 핵심 인사들이 Reform UK으로 합류하고 있다.
- 결론: Reform UK이 분열된 우파를 재통합한다면 Conservative Party를 주변화하면서 집권할 수 있으며, 그 정책 출발점은 사실상 직전 보수당 정부의 마지막 노선과 동일하다.
결론
Reform UK의 성장 천장론은 근거가 약하며, 5월 지방·지역의회 선거에서의 성공이 보수당 잔여 지지층의 대규모 이탈을 촉발할 경우 영국 우파 정치 지형을 근본적으로 재편할 수 있다.