A regime loved by MAGA may soon lose power. That matters
Photograph: Reuters
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I t has fewer people than Belgium, and its GDP is barely 1% of the European Union’s. Yet Hungary counts. Not because clever Hungarians invented the Rubik’s cube and the ballpoint pen, but because an unscrupulous one, Viktor Orban, offers a template for how a democratically elected leader can undermine democracy and the rule of law.
For MAGA Republicans and other populist nationalists, Mr Orban is a model to emulate: a scourge of the woke, a defender of borders, tradition and Christianity. Donald Trump praises his strength; Steve Bannon calls him “one of the great moral leaders in this world”. But his government is unpopular in Hungary; many see it as repressive, corrupt and ripe for sacking. At an election on April 12th, voters will have a chance to do just that. They should take it.
Since winning power in 2010, Mr Orban has steadily removed checks and balances, neutering the judiciary, stuffing the bureaucracy with stooges and gradually co-opting nearly every independent institution. Each step was usually legal, and many had precedents in other democracies. But taken together, they consolidated vast powers in a small ruling circle, and opened the door to colossal graft. Hungary is now the least free and most corrupt country in the EU.
It is also the most Putin-friendly. Energised by Russian gas and oil, Mr Orban frustrates EU efforts to give money to Ukraine and tries to soften sanctions against Russia. European leaders now assume that anything they say in front of a Hungarian official will be passed on to the Kremlin. Vladimir Putin is grateful: Russia’s disinformation tools have been vigorously deployed to slander the Hungarian opposition.
The election will not be fair. Most media are controlled by the state or Mr Orban’s cronies. Voters are constantly (and falsely) warned that a victory for the opposition will mean that Hungarians will be sent to die in Ukraine. The voting system is gerrymandered for the ruling party, Fidesz.
Nonetheless, polls show the opposition with a decisive lead. Some even suggest it will win a large majority in parliament. The polls may be wrong, but this is Hungary’s best chance in 16 years of getting rid of Mr Orban. If the opposition wins, liberals everywhere should study what it got right.
One lesson is over tactics. The opposition rallied around its most electable candidate, Peter Magyar. Handsome and charismatic, he campaigns skilfully on social media and tirelessly at rallies. As a defector from the ruling party, he can speak out about its moral rot. He also appeals to swing voters, notably in small towns, who might see other opposition figures as too elitist. He is not perfect, but his upstart movement, Tisza, unites the centre left and centre right.
Second, the opposition does not merely grumble about abstract ideas, such as democracy. Rather, it stresses how Fidesz has emptied Hungarians’ wallets. Interest rates are high; the economy grew by just 0.4% last year (nearby Poland managed 3.6%). Mr Magyar excoriates the regime’s corruption, too. Voters can see how astonishingly rich Mr Orban’s chums have grown, thanks to rigged public contracts and regulatory favours. The misappropriation of huge EU subsidies by insiders grew so blatant that Brussels belatedly froze them. Hungary is a textbook example of how unconstrained power—the goal of populists everywhere—is a recipe for plunder; but also of how such plunder ultimately repels voters.
On a related note, Mr Trump’s endorsement, in the person of J.D. Vance, who is due to visit Hungary just before the election, does not seem to be helping Mr Orban. The world’s most famous right-wing populist is increasingly associated with war, pricey petrol and corruption. In Australia and Canada, his interference around election time has unintentionally helped the candidates he dislikes. Whether this year will see the populist tide start to ebb remains to be seen. But outfits such as Nigel Farage’s party in Britain, Reform UK, and the Alternative for Germany find it awkward to be MAGA -affiliated. Centrists should take advantage.
Meanwhile, Hungary’s future hangs in the balance. If the opposition wins a big majority, it will be harder for Mr Orban to deny or subvert the result. Even if he is ousted, he could still cause trouble. He has set up institutions, such as foundations running universities and media outlets, that will remain under the control of his friends. Any new government will struggle to unravel Orbanism’s tentacular grip over Hungary. (Poland, where a moderate government is tackling a similar problem, offers lessons.) The first step for Hungary, however, is the most crucial: defeating Viktor. ■
논증 분석
유형: prescriptive
핵심 주장
Viktor Orban의 Hungary는 민주주의를 내부에서 해체하는 방법의 전형적 사례이며, 4월 12일 선거에서 야권이 승리해야 하고 그 성공 요인은 세계 자유주의자들에게 중요한 교훈을 제공한다.
논리구조
- 전제: Hungary는 작은 나라지만, Viktor Orban이 민주적으로 선출된 지도자가 민주주의와 법치를 어떻게 훼손할 수 있는지의 템플릿을 제공하기 때문에 세계적으로 중요하다.
- 진단: Orban은 2010년 집권 이후 사법부 무력화, 관료제 장악, 독립 기관 포섭 등 각각은 합법적이었던 단계들을 통해 권력을 소수 지배층에 집중시키고 대규모 부패를 가능하게 했으며, Hungary는 현재 EU에서 가장 자유롭지 않고 가장 부패한 나라가 되었다.
- 진단: Hungary는 Vladimir Putin에게 가장 우호적인 EU 국가로, 러시아 에너지에 의존하며 우크라이나 지원을 방해하고 대러 제재를 약화시키는 등 Kremlin의 이익에 복무하고 있다.
- 진단: 4월 12일 선거는 대부분의 언론이 국가 및 Orban 측근에 장악되고, 야권 승리 시 우크라이나 파병 위험이 있다는 허위 선전이 난무하며, 선거구도 집권당 Fidesz에 유리하게 게리맨더링되어 있어 공정하지 않다.
- 논거: 그럼에도 여론조사는 야권의 결정적 우세를 보여주며, 일부는 의회 과반 획득을 예측하는 등 이번 선거는 16년 만에 Orban을 축출할 최선의 기회다.
- 처방: 야권이 성공할 수 있었던 첫 번째 교훈은 전술이다: Peter Magyar라는 가장 당선 가능성 높은 후보를 중심으로 중도 좌우가 통합했고, Fidesz 탈당자로서 체제의 도덕적 부패를 직접 고발할 수 있었다.
- 처방: 두 번째 교훈은 추상적 민주주의 담론이 아닌 구체적 경제적 피해(고금리, 저성장, 부패로 인한 EU 보조금 동결 등)를 부각시켜 유권자들의 실생활에 호소했다는 점이다.
- 논거: J.D. Vance의 방문을 통한 Donald Trump의 Orban 지지는 오히려 역효과를 낼 수 있으며, Australia와 Canada 사례처럼 포퓰리스트의 외부 개입이 지지하는 후보에게 불리하게 작용하는 패턴이 나타나고 있다.
- 반론: 설령 야권이 승리하더라도 Orban은 자신이 설립한 재단, 대학, 언론 기관 등 제도적 유산을 통해 지속적으로 영향력을 행사할 수 있어, 새 정부는 ‘오르바니즘’의 촉수 같은 지배력을 해체하는 데 어려움을 겪을 것이다.
결론
Hungary 야권의 승리는 그 자체로 중요한 첫걸음이지만, 세계 자유주의자들에게는 포퓰리즘에 맞서는 전술적·경제적 메시지 전략의 모델로서도 의미가 있으며, 포퓰리즘 조류가 썰물로 전환될 수 있는지를 가늠하는 시험대가 된다.
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