A regime loved by MAGA may soon lose power. That matters
Photograph: Reuters
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I t has fewer people than Belgium, and its GDP is barely 1% of the European Union’s. Yet Hungary counts. Not because clever Hungarians invented the Rubik’s cube and the ballpoint pen, but because an unscrupulous one, Viktor Orban, offers a template for how a democratically elected leader can undermine democracy and the rule of law.
For MAGA Republicans and other populist nationalists, Mr Orban is a model to emulate: a scourge of the woke, a defender of borders, tradition and Christianity. Donald Trump praises his strength; Steve Bannon calls him “one of the great moral leaders in this world”. But his government is unpopular in Hungary; many see it as repressive, corrupt and ripe for sacking. At an election on April 12th, voters will have a chance to do just that. They should take it.
Since winning power in 2010, Mr Orban has steadily removed checks and balances, neutering the judiciary, stuffing the bureaucracy with stooges and gradually co-opting nearly every independent institution. Each step was usually legal, and many had precedents in other democracies. But taken together, they consolidated vast powers in a small ruling circle, and opened the door to colossal graft. Hungary is now the least free and most corrupt country in the EU.
It is also the most Putin-friendly. Energised by Russian gas and oil, Mr Orban frustrates EU efforts to give money to Ukraine and tries to soften sanctions against Russia. European leaders now assume that anything they say in front of a Hungarian official will be passed on to the Kremlin. Vladimir Putin is grateful: Russia’s disinformation tools have been vigorously deployed to slander the Hungarian opposition.
The election will not be fair. Most media are controlled by the state or Mr Orban’s cronies. Voters are constantly (and falsely) warned that a victory for the opposition will mean that Hungarians will be sent to die in Ukraine. The voting system is gerrymandered for the ruling party, Fidesz.
Nonetheless, polls show the opposition with a decisive lead. Some even suggest it will win a large majority in parliament. The polls may be wrong, but this is Hungary’s best chance in 16 years of getting rid of Mr Orban. If the opposition wins, liberals everywhere should study what it got right.
One lesson is over tactics. The opposition rallied around its most electable candidate, Peter Magyar. Handsome and charismatic, he campaigns skilfully on social media and tirelessly at rallies. As a defector from the ruling party, he can speak out about its moral rot. He also appeals to swing voters, notably in small towns, who might see other opposition figures as too elitist. He is not perfect, but his upstart movement, Tisza, unites the centre left and centre right.
Second, the opposition does not merely grumble about abstract ideas, such as democracy. Rather, it stresses how Fidesz has emptied Hungarians’ wallets. Interest rates are high; the economy grew by just 0.4% last year (nearby Poland managed 3.6%). Mr Magyar excoriates the regime’s corruption, too. Voters can see how astonishingly rich Mr Orban’s chums have grown, thanks to rigged public contracts and regulatory favours. The misappropriation of huge EU subsidies by insiders grew so blatant that Brussels belatedly froze them. Hungary is a textbook example of how unconstrained power—the goal of populists everywhere—is a recipe for plunder; but also of how such plunder ultimately repels voters.
On a related note, Mr Trump’s endorsement, in the person of J.D. Vance, who is due to visit Hungary just before the election, does not seem to be helping Mr Orban. The world’s most famous right-wing populist is increasingly associated with war, pricey petrol and corruption. In Australia and Canada, his interference around election time has unintentionally helped the candidates he dislikes. Whether this year will see the populist tide start to ebb remains to be seen. But outfits such as Nigel Farage’s party in Britain, Reform UK, and the Alternative for Germany find it awkward to be MAGA -affiliated. Centrists should take advantage.
Meanwhile, Hungary’s future hangs in the balance. If the opposition wins a big majority, it will be harder for Mr Orban to deny or subvert the result. Even if he is ousted, he could still cause trouble. He has set up institutions, such as foundations running universities and media outlets, that will remain under the control of his friends. Any new government will struggle to unravel Orbanism’s tentacular grip over Hungary. (Poland, where a moderate government is tackling a similar problem, offers lessons.) The first step for Hungary, however, is the most crucial: defeating Viktor. ■
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