Donald Trump’s tariffs have hurt the factories they were meant to protect
Hyped machines Photograph: Getty Images
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L AST YEAR the Trump administration’s justifications for its tariffs shifted almost as much as the levies themselves. President Donald Trump and his team have variously defended their border taxes as a stop-gap negotiating tool, a weapon aimed at China and a scheme to reshape global trade and finance. But even as the arguments shifted, one remained central: the notion that tariffs will inspire a revival in American manufacturing. As he announced his first volley of global levies, Mr Trump promised: “Jobs and factories will come roaring back into our country.”
American industry has certainly been in decline. Overall production has flatlined for the best part of 20 years, even as services have ballooned—a fact that has inspired Oscar-winning films and era-defining writing, as well as angering people across the political spectrum. By the time Mr Trump took office in January, America had been in a two-year manufacturing recession, according to purchasing managers’ surveys. This, the president vowed, would change. The logic was simple: “If you want your tariff rate to be zero,” said Mr Trump, “build your product right here in America.”
Chart: The Economist
Nearly a year on, however, the Trumpian manufacturing renaissance is conspicuous by its absence. The manufacturing contraction is now entering its third year, and factories have continued to shed jobs; employment fell by 0.6% in the year to November (see chart 1). And it is not just that Mr Trump’s actions are failing to revive American manufacturing. Under the hood, there are signs that they are actively hurting it.
Part of the problem is high interest rates. American industry fell into recession in early 2023, soon after the Federal Reserve sharply raised rates to combat inflation. Manufacturing, with expensive and often debt-financed kit, is especially sensitive to such changes. Mr Trump is keen to see looser monetary policy; America’s continuing high rates mostly reflect robust economic growth and vast rate-insensitive AI spending. All the same, his policies have not helped. High deficits and threats to the independence of the Fed have made American debt less desirable for investors, and thus lifted borrowing costs.
Chart: The Economist
Moreover, his tariffs have injected uncertainty into the economy. For a manufacturing sector that sends nearly a quarter of its output abroad, this is a significant problem. Many inputs also come from abroad—think of industrial chemicals used in adhesive, coatings and plastics for cars or active pharmaceutical ingredients for medicines. Indeed, surveys suggest that export orders and import volumes for manufacturing have contracted markedly since Mr Trump announced high tariffs on “Liberation Day” in April, one that goes beyond the wider weakness in manufacturing (see chart 2). Factory bosses report difficulty making long-term plans.
Chart: The Economist
Another way to see these costs is to look at the one sort of manufacturing that has been on a tear: computer equipment, especially semiconductors (see chart 3). Demand for chips has leapt owing to the data-centre boom. Notably, however, computer parts have also received exemptions from Mr Trump’s tariffs, points out Joseph Politano of Apricitas Economics, a newsletter. Semiconductors have been carved out from Mr Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs on specific countries. More recently, the president has also watered down the export-control regime designed to deny China chips used to train the most sophisticated AI models. This rare free-trade turn seems to have provided a spur to the industry.
Manufacturers will be hoping for respite in the year ahead. They may well be disappointed. Betting markets expect the Supreme Court to rule soon against a portion of Mr Trump’s tariffs, which would spark another chaotic reshuffling of the levies. Later in the year the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, a free-trade deal, is up for review. It has shielded lots of manufacturers who rely on cross-border supply chains from the worst of the tariffs. Mr Trump is unlikely to blow up the deal, but its renegotiation could get messy. Factory-owners could be forgiven, then, for wishing that the administration was rather less enthusiastic about helping them. ■
논증 분석
유형: diagnosis
핵심 주장
Donald Trump의 관세 정책은 미국 제조업을 부활시키기는커녕 오히려 적극적으로 해치고 있다.
논리구조
- 전제: Donald Trump는 관세가 미국 제조업 부활을 이끌 것이라고 약속했으며, ‘미국에서 만들면 관세율 0%‘라는 논리를 내세웠다.
- 진단: 취임 후 약 1년이 지났지만 제조업 침체는 3년째 이어지고 있으며, 2025년 11월까지 제조업 고용이 전년 대비 0.6% 감소했다.
- 논거: 높은 금리가 제조업에 부담을 주고 있으며, Donald Trump의 재정 적자 확대와 Federal Reserve 독립성 위협이 미국 국채 매력을 낮춰 차입 비용을 추가로 끌어올렸다.
- 논거: 관세로 인한 불확실성이 제조업에 심각한 타격을 입혔다. 제조업 생산의 약 4분의 1이 수출되고 많은 투입재가 수입에 의존하는 구조에서, ‘Liberation Day’ 이후 수출 주문과 수입 물량이 급격히 위축됐다.
- 논거: 유일하게 호황을 보이는 반도체·컴퓨터 장비 분야는 Donald Trump의 관세 적용에서 예외(exemption)를 받은 부문이다. Joseph Politano of Apricitas Economics에 따르면 이 희귀한 자유무역적 조치가 산업 성장을 이끌었다.
- 반론: Donald Trump와 그의 팀은 관세를 협상 도구, 대중국 무기, 글로벌 무역·금융 재편 수단 등으로 다양하게 정당화해왔으나, 제조업 부활이라는 핵심 명분은 현실에서 입증되지 않고 있다.
- 진단: 향후에도 대법원의 관세 위헌 판결 가능성, United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement 재협상 등 추가적인 불확실성이 제조업체들을 계속 압박할 전망이다.
결론
관세 적용에서 면제된 반도체 산업만이 예외적으로 성장한 사실이 보여주듯, Donald Trump의 관세 정책은 제조업을 돕기보다 해치고 있으며 제조업체들은 오히려 정부의 ‘도움’이 덜하기를 바라는 역설적 상황에 처해 있다.
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